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☆ Oil up as market weighs supply cuts against gloomy economic outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( Natalie Grover | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, July 4 (Reuters) - Oil prices ticked higher on Tuesday as markets weighed supply cuts for August by top exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia against a weak global economic outlook. However, oil benchmarks settled down about 1% in the previous session, after an initial rally, on the back of a gloomy macroeconomic outlook. Tuesday morning trade suggests little has changed in oil dynamics despite Monday's announcements, Craig Erlam, OANDA analyst told Reuters. Even before these new cut announcements, International Energy Agency (IEA) data suggested the oil market was set to show a supply deficit of roughly 2 million bpd in the third and fourth quarters, noted Commerzbank analysts. Still, oil prices did not jump significantly on the news, largely due to demand concerns, particularly given sluggish economic recovery in China following the lifting of coronavirus restrictions.

Persons: Tamas Varga, Craig Erlam, Natalie Grover, Arathy Somasekhar, Trixie Yap, Mark Potter, Alexander Smith Organizations: Brent, . West Texas, Reuters, International Energy Agency, Independence, Thomson Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Algeria, OPEC, China, Europe, U.S, London, Houston, Singapore

Oanda analyst Craig Erlam said prices were mainly at the mercy of "the ever-changing expectations for interest rates". European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Tuesday that stubbornly high inflation will require the bank to avoid declaring an end to rate hikes. Higher interest rates can weigh on economic activity and oil demand. But the upbeat data suggested the Federal Reserve will likely have to continue raising interest rates to slow demand in the overall economy. The U.S. central bank, which has raised its policy rate by 500 basis points since March 2022, signaled this month that two additional rate hikes were warranted this year.

Persons: Brent, Craig Erlam, Christine Lagarde, Phil Flynn, Wagner, PVM's Tamas Varga, Saudi Arabia's, Li Qiang, Stephanie Kelly, Shadia Nasralla, Trixie Yap, Jan Harvey, David Goodman, Ed Osmond, Deepa Babington, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: Brent, . West Texas, European Central Bank, Price Futures, Reserve, American Petroleum Institute, Reuters, Saudi, Thomson Locations: contango, Europe, United States, U.S, Russia, China

SummarySummary Companies Oil price structure implies demand bulls are retreating2-mth Brent spread in contango, implying oversupply concernECB poised for further rate hikesLONDON, June 27 (Reuters) - Oil prices slipped on Tuesday ahead of data shedding light on U.S. appetite for fuel during the summer driving season, with the Brent benchmark's price structure indicating bulls are retreating. U.S. inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute industry group is expected after 2000 GMT, followed by government data on Wednesday. For the two-month spread , the market is in shallow contango, the opposite price structure, indicating traders are factoring in a currently slightly oversupplied market. The oil market has shrugged off a clash between Moscow and Russian mercenary group Wagner which was averted on Saturday. Russian oil loadings have kept on schedule.

Persons: Brent, Craig Erlam, Christine Lagarde, Wagner, PVM's Tamas Varga, Saudi Arabia's, Premier Li Qiang, Trixie Yap, Jan Harvey, Louise Heavens Organizations: Brent, U.S, West Texas, Central Bank, American Petroleum Institute, Reuters, Saudi, Premier, Thomson Locations: contango, U.S, Moscow, Russian, China

The Fed's fight to lower inflation "has a long way to go" Powell said on Wednesday in testimony prepared for delivery to the House Financial Services Committee. Providing some support for prices earlier, analysts polled by Reuters said they expected U.S. crude oil and product inventories to have declined last week. However, an expanded poll now predicts a small build in crude oil stockpiles. Official U.S. oil inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute will be released later on Wednesday and the Energy Information Administration's report will follow on Thursday. Price gains were also capped as British inflation defied expectations of a slowdown, data showed on Wednesday.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brent, Powell, Price, Craig Erlam, Shariq Khan, Rowena Edwards, Katya Golubkova, Trixie Yap, Emelia Sithole, David Goodman, Chris Reese Organizations: . West Texas, Financial Services Committee, Analysts, Reuters, American Petroleum Institute, Energy, Bank of England, OANDA, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, U.S

☆ Oil holds steady ahead of Powell's congressional testimony
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Rowena Edwards | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, June 21 (Reuters) - Oil prices stabilised on Wednesday ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's congressional testimony later in the day and as data showing British inflation remained sticky raised the possibility of a hawkish Bank of England policy decision this week. The main market focus is on Fed officials due to speak later in the day, with Chair Powell's congressional testimony on the economy on Wednesday and Thursday the highlight. However, should Powell prompt a hawkish return of rate cut expectations, the U.S. dollar could see some support, ING strategist Francesco Pesole said in a note. A stronger U.S. dollar is bearish for oil as it makes commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. Oil prices drew some support from a possible drawdown in U.S. crude stocks, with Reuters poll among five analysts estimating that crude stockpiles fell by about 400,000 barrels on average in the week to June 16.

Persons: Jerome, Brent, Craig Erlam, Powell, Francesco Pesole, Rowena Edwards, Katya Golubkova, Trixie Yap, Emelia Sithole, Louise Heavens Organizations: Federal, hawkish Bank of, . West Texas, Bank of England, U.S, ING, Reuters, American Petroleum Institute, Energy, Administration, Thomson Locations: bank's Washington, U.S, Tokyo, Singapore

"The Saudi cut lifted prices slightly, and then the chatter of the potential return of Iranian barrels saw a large drop. Oil prices had risen early in the week, buoyed by Saudi Arabia's pledge over the weekend to cut more output on top of the cuts agreed earlier with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies. However, a rise in U.S. fuel stocks and weak Chinese export data have weighed on the markets. Some analysts expect oil prices to rise if the U.S. Federal Reserve pauses hiking interest rates at its next meeting over June 13-14. The Fed's decision may also influence Saudi Arabia's next move, analysts said.

Persons: Brent, Giovanni Staunovo, Saudi Arabia's, Rob Haworth, Craig Erlam, Shariq Khan, Shadia Nasralla, Yuka Obayashi, Marguerita Choy, Richard Chang Organizations: Saudi, Brent, U.S . West Texas, Organization of, Petroleum, Northern, U.S, Bank Asset Management, U.S . Federal, Thomson Locations: China, BENGALURU, U.S, Iran, Saudi, US

[1/2] A tug boat pushes an oil barge through New York Harbor past the Statue of Liberty in New York City, U.S., May 24, 2022. WTI was headed for its highest close since May 26 and Brent on track for its highest close since May 29. Open interest in futures contracts rose on Thursday to the highest since July 2021 for Brent and March 2022 for WTI. Oil traders have turned their attention to the June 4 meeting of OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia. On the demand side, manufacturing data out of China, the world's second biggest oil consumer, painted a mixed picture.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Brent, WTI, Baker Hughes, Craig Erlam, Erlam, Shadia Nasralla, Andrew Hayley, Susan Fenton, Kirsten Donovan, David Gregorio Our Organizations: REUTERS, Congress, YORK, U.S, . West Texas, WTI, Senate, U.S . Federal Reserve, Organization of, Petroleum, Thomson Locations: New York Harbor, of, New York City, U.S, Russia, OPEC, Saudi, Saudi Arabia, China, Shanghai, Shenzhen, London, Beijing

☆ Oil prices jump 2% after U.S. debt deal and jobs data as focus turns to OPEC
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Drillers work at a shale oil well site in Jiangyan district of Taizhou, East China's Jiangsu Province, April 7, 2023. Oil prices rose more than 2% on Friday after the U.S. Congress passed a debt ceiling deal that averted a government default in the world's biggest oil consumer and jobs data fed hopes for a possible pause in interest rate hikes ahead of a meeting of OPEC and its allies this weekend. U.S. employment increased more than expected in May, but a moderation in wages could allow the U.S. Federal Reserve to skip an interest rate hike this month for the first time in more than a year. Oil traders have turned their attention to the June 4 meeting of OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia. On the demand side, manufacturing data out of China, the world's second biggest oil consumer, painted a mixed picture.

Persons: Brent, Craig Erlam, Erlam Organizations: Drillers, U.S, Congress, . West Texas, Senate, U.S . Federal Reserve, Organization of, Petroleum Locations: Jiangyan district, Taizhou, East China's Jiangsu Province, Russia, OPEC, Saudi, Saudi Arabia, China, Shanghai, Shenzhen

☆ Oil ticks up as markets weigh U.S. debt deal, rate hike possibility
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"The euphoria of the debt deal is wearing off as concern mounts for another rate hike by the Fed in June," brokerage Liquidity Energy LLC wrote in a note. U.S. President Joe Biden and House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy over the weekend forged an agreement to suspend the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling and cap government spending for the next two years. Still, analysts saw any boost in oil prices from it as short-lived. "Higher U.S. rates are a headwind for crude oil demand," IG Sydney-based analyst Tony Sycamore said. The dollar also nudged down on Monday as the debt ceiling deal lifted risk appetite in world markets and dented the greenback's safe-haven appeal.

☆ Oil dips as rate hike fears offset U.S. debt deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HOUSTON, May 29 (Reuters) - Oil prices slipped on Monday as worries over further interest rate hikes that could curb energy demand trumped a tentative U.S. debt ceiling deal, possibly averting a default in the world's top oil consumer. "The euphoria of the debt deal is wearing off as concern mounts for another rate hike by the Fed in June," brokerage Liquidity Energy LLC wrote in a note. Still, analysts saw any boost in oil prices from the debt deal as short-lived, with earlier gains in the session now lost. "Higher U.S. rates are a headwind for crude oil demand," IG Sydney-based analyst Tony Sycamore said. However, comments from Russian oil officials and sources, including Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, indicate the world's third-largest oil producer is leaning towards leaving output unchanged.

☆ Oil prices gain 1% on falling U.S. stockpiles, Saudi warning
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices rose over 1% on Wednesday, after a large unexpected drawdown in U.S. crude inventories and a warning from the Saudi energy minister that raised the prospect of further OPEC+ production cuts. U.S. crude inventories posted a massive surprise drawdown, falling by 12.5 million barrels last week to 455.2 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. U.S. gasoline stocks dropped by 2.1 million barrels in the week to 216.3 million barrels, the EIA said, while distillate stockpiles fell by 600,000 barrels in the week to 105.7 million barrels. Saudi Arabia's energy minister said short-sellers - those betting that prices will fall - should "watch out" for pain. "Oil prices are trading higher ... buoyed by the latest short-seller warning from Saudi Arabia," said OANDA senior market analyst Craig Erlam.

Persons: Phil Flynn, Craig Erlam, Joe Biden, Kevin McCarthy, Price, Britain's Organizations: Brent, U.S, West Texas, Energy Information Administration, Analysts, EIA, Memorial, Price Futures, Organization of Petroleum, Democratic, Republican Locations: Saudi, U.S, Russia, OPEC, Saudi Arabia

☆ Oil gains after Saudi warns short-sellers: 'watch out'
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices rose on Tuesday on forecasts for a tighter gasoline market and a warning from the Saudi energy minister to speculators that raised the prospect of further OPEC+ output cuts. Brent crude futures rose 85 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $76.84 a barrel, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled at $72.91 a barrel, up 86 cents, or 1.2%. On Monday, prices rose 1% on optimism fed by a surge in U.S. gasoline futures. Gasoline futures rose 1.2% on Tuesday, with analysts expecting a third straight weekly decline in inventories ahead of peak summer travel season which starts on the U.S. Memorial Day holiday on May 29. Erlam added Brent crude prices need to rise above $77.50 a barrel to signal a sentiment shift.

Persons: U.S ., Craig Erlam, Erlam, Brent, haven't, Rob Haworth Organizations: Brent, U.S . West Texas, U.S, U.S . Memorial, American Petroleum Institute, U.S . Energy, Administration, of Petroleum, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Bank Wealth Management Locations: Saudi, U.S, Russia, OPEC

At least 300,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) production was shut in last week in Alberta. Also supporting oil prices, the U.S. could start repurchasing oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) after completing a congressionally mandated sale in June, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told lawmakers on Thursday. Global crude supplies could also tighten in the second half as OPEC+ - the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia - plan additional output cuts. Fears of a slowdown in the global economy limited gains in oil prices. "If credit conditions ease over the coming months, allaying economic fears for the world's largest economy, oil prices could bounce back without assistance but it seems a little premature at this point," said OANDA analyst Craig Erlam.

In a possible sign of weakening demand, U.S. crude inventories rose by about 3 million barrels in the week ended May 5, the Energy Information Administration said. The surprising U.S. inventory build along with lower crude imports and April's softer export growth in China exacerbated worries about global oil demand. Rising global interest rates have stirred fears of an impending recession, putting more pressure on oil prices. However, a large draw in U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories provided some support for oil prices on Wednesday. "Further action by (OPEC+) or calmer conditions in U.S. banks could see oil prices bounce back once more."

☆ Oil slips on economy worries, despite upbeat China data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Crude was also pressured by the Iraq federal government and Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) taking a step towards a resumption in northern oil exports from the Turkish port of Ceyhan after they were halted last month. Brent crude fell by 18 cents, or 0.2%, to $84.58 a barrel by 1336 GMT, giving up early gains. "As things stand, it's all systems go in China, much to the relief of those betting on higher oil prices," said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM. But the prospect of another increase to U.S. interest rates, which has been supporting the U.S. dollar, remained a drag on sentiment. Analysts expect U.S. crude inventories to fall by about 2.5 million barrels and also forecast declines in gasoline and distillates.

☆ Oil prices steady as strong China data offsets US rate worries
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

2 oil consumer China offset concerns that possible increases in U.S. interest rates could dampen growth in the top consuming country. China's economy grew by a faster-than-expected 4.5% in the first quarter while oil refinery throughput rose to record levels in March, data showed. The dollar eased on Tuesday after the upbeat China data. Most traders, however, believe that the recent crude price rally is in need of a correction, said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial. Crude prices posted gains for the last four weeks, a streak not seen since June 2022.

☆ Oil settles 1% higher on tightening supplies, cooling US inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Shariq Khan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The most actively traded Brent futures, for June delivery, settled up $1.29, or 1.6%, at $79.89 a barrel. Brent futures for May delivery, which expired upon settlement, gained 50 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $79.77 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) for May delivery settled higher by $1.30, or 1.8%, at $75.67 a barrel, gaining about 9% for the week. Signs that inflation is slowing tend to support oil prices as this could point to less aggressive interest rate hikes from the Fed, lifting investor demand for risk assets like commodities and equities. Brent settled lower for the third quarter in a row, the first time that has happened since 2015.

☆ Oil ticks up as US inflation cools, but set to end March lower
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Shariq Khan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Brent futures , which have risen nearly 6% this week, were up 26 cents, or 0.3% at $79.53 a barrel by 10:56 a.m. EDT (1456 GMT). West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) rose 37 cents, or 0.5% to $74.74, having gained about 8% so far this week. If those levels hold, oil prices will record their second straight week of gains, but Brent and WTI were also set for losses of about 5% and 3%, respectively. Oil prices were also buoyed after producers shut in or reduced output at several oilfields in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region of northern Iraq following a halt to the northern export pipeline. OPEC pumped 28.90 million barrels per day (bpd) this month, a Reuters survey found, down 70,000 bpd from February.

☆ The dollar slipped this quarter after surging in 2022. Its struggles could be a sign of things to come.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar slipped around 1% this quarter on the prospect the Federal Reserve may be close to ending interest-rate increases. Analysts are warning that the greenback's losses could snowball over the rest of 2023. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. "Nowhere have we seen interest-rate expectations pared back as much as the US, not among major central banks anyway," OANDA analyst Craig Erlam told Insider. "That change in interest-rate expectations has driven yields much lower which has, in turn, hit the dollar and if they don't bounce back, it could do more," he added.

☆ Gold steadies, Fed pause bets brighten outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Ashitha Shivaprasad | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Spot gold was little changed at $1,996.19 per ounce at 1202 GMT, holding a relatively narrow $20 range. U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $1,997.50. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell for the third straight session, while the dollar index rose 0.7%. Commerzbank raised its year-end gold forecasts to $2,000, joining similar upward revisions by Goldman Sachs, Citi and ANZ. Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru; Editing by Sohini Goswami and Maju SamuelOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 64 cents, or 0.9%, to $70.31. The U.S. dollar fell to its lowest level since Feb. 3 against a basket of other currencies, supporting oil demand by making crude cheaper for buyers using other currencies. "The big story here is that build ... in crude, which is enough to get us to the 22-month high in crude oil storage. We just have a lot of crude oil in storage and it's not going to go away anytime soon," said Bob Yawger at Mizuho, a bank. An emergency rescue of Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN.S) over the weekend helped revive oil prices.

☆ The bank panic is subsiding just in time for the Fed to
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —One week ago, right in this here newsletter, I wrote about how Wall Street was having a Zen moment. In the optimistic camp: “The bank crisis-ette is over,” Daniel Alpert, managing partner at Westwood Capital, told me. And it will be the first time the world hears from Fed officials since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, thanks to a cosmic twist of timing. But because of the banking turmoil, there is a chance the Fed would decide not to raise rates this time around. If the Fed feels the crisis has passed, Alpert said, it will be emboldened to go for the quarter-point hike.

☆ Victims of the Fed: How a year of rate hikes cratered stocks - and fueled the demise of FTX and Silicon Valley Bank
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The US central bank has lifted borrowing costs from near-zero to just under 5%, starting with its initial raise on March 16, 2022. Lender Silicon Valley Bank failed and FTX imploded after borrowing costs rose. "Stocks had become reliant on low interest rates as a crutch," Dan Kemp, CIO at Morningstar Investment Management, told Insider. "If valuations had been lower, then the reaction to the Fed's rate hikes would've been far less severe." Rising interest rates in a particular country tend to strengthen its currency, because they attract foreign investors seeking higher yields.

☆ Oil dips on China outlook while investors await Fed clues
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Noah Browning | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Brent crude futures were trading down 60 cents, or 0.7%, at $85.23 a barrel by 1520 GMT. "Crude remains in a tug-of-war between optimism over Chinese reopening and nervousness over a hawkish Fed hurting the U.S. economy," said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights. China's closely watched growth outlook, announced on Sunday, was lower than last year's 5.5% target for gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Policy sources had told Reuters the target could be set as high as 6% for 2023. At the same time, oil prices are likely to be affected by increases to interest rates across the world as global central banks tighten policy over fears of rising inflation.

☆ Bitcoin edges higher after dismal February for risk assets as investors assess rate outlook and new China data
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Bitcoin and other risk assets rose after strong Chinese manufacturing activity data. The coin on Wednesday was gaining ground on notably strong manufacturing data out of China. China's National Bureau of Statistics said its manufacturing activity index rose to 52.46 in February, the highest reading since April 2012, according to Bloomberg. Chinese stocks bounced higher, with the Hang Seng Index soaring more than 4%. Copper was another risk-on asset gaining ground, up 1.2% at $4.14 per pound on prospects of higher Chinese demand for the metal used for construction projects.

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